2022 semiconductor revenue will grow 7.4% to $639 billion, down from 2021 growth of 26.3%, says Gartner. In 2023, it is expected to fall 2.5%.
“We are already seeing weakness in semiconductor end markets, especially those exposed to consumer spending,” says Gartner’s Richard Gordon, “rising inflation, taxes and interest rates, together with higher energy and fuel costs, are putting pressure on consumer disposable income. This is affecting spending on electronic products such as PCs and smartphones.”
Memory demand and pricing have softened, especially in consumer-related areas like PCs and smartphones.
Table 1. Semiconductor Revenue Forecast, Worldwide, 2021-2023 (Millions of U.S. Dollars)
Source: Gartner (July 2022)
PC shipments are set to decline by 13.1% in 2022. Semiconductor revenue from PCs is estimated to record a decline of 5.4% in 2022.
Semiconductor revenue from smartphones is expected to slow to 3.1% growth in 2022, compared to 24.5% growth in 2021.
From an enterprise perspective, inventories are recovering rapidly, lead times are beginning to shorten, and prices are starting to weaken.
“While the consumer space will slow down, semiconductor revenue from the data centre market will remain resilient for longer (20% growth in 2022) due to continued cloud infrastructure investment.m,” says Gordon, “the automotive electronics segment will continue to record double-digit growth over the next three years as semiconductor content per vehicle will increase due to the transition to electric and autonomous vehicles. The semiconductor content per vehicle is projected to increase from $712 in 2022 to $931 in 2025.”